Recently in Economy Category
Questions to Stir the Heart
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
January 21, 2009
As an American, I am so very happy to the people starting to unite. For decades, we have become more and more splintered, everyone going in their own direction, pulling the nation apart. President Obama's charisma has pulled the people together again, but for how long.
Leaders, true leaders, must challenge the people. They must move people from where they are to a new place, a new level. Charisma, by itself, will not move the people to the next level. Yes, it does have the effect, often temporary, of pulling people together, but more is needed. The heart must be stirred and inflamed.
Nothing stirs the heart like probing questions, reflective questions, innovative questions. The leader not only asks these questions, but also gives us answers to them, the answers we need to follow. That is what all the great leaders have done to move the people from the pulling together stage to the action stage.
I was watching for President Obama to do this at his inauguration; however, he only asked one question. He made many statements, but only one question.
Review some of our great leaders, Washington, Lincoln, and Kennedy. They asked questions of the people, heart stirring questions, reflective questions, innovative questions. They also gave the answers, answers, which pointed in the direction in which the people needed to go.
To unite Americans, move them into a new and better
That is why the questions are important for a leader. Without the questions to stir the people, they will loose the motivation, which was ignited by the charisma. The questions keep the direction alive. The questions keep the motivation alive. The questions provide the reason to continue. The questions stir our hearts.
The hopes of
Charisma and Show, But is Obama a Leader
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
January 19, 2009
No one would doubt that Mr. Obama is charismatic. He has a strong appeal factor working for him. He is good at words and knows how to put on a show. His trip to
I am not a pessimist, but each day I doubt him a little more. Charisma is not everything. Yes, it helps a leader. In fact you really can not be a leader unless you have a certain amount of charisma, but you need more.
There are 10 main points to be a good leaders and I am wondering if Mr. Obama will stack up. My doubts really started to surface when he backed down on a fight with congress on, what I considered, a vital part of the stimulus plan.
If you remember, Mr. Obama proposed to give a tax credit to companies which retained present workers and a larger credit if they hire new employees over and above the replacement of exiting employees. This would have done wonders for the economy and for the morale of the people, but congress said no we don't want it and Mr. Obama cut it out of the package, without a fight.
A leader has to be prepared to fight when the fight is worthwhile and this was a worthwhile fight. Keeping Americans working is more important that protecting the profits of huge dinosaur corporations.
You will say that if the big corporations and the banks go under there will be no jobs. Yes and No! The government has already set a precedence of taking over institutions and could step in and take control of the failing corporations. As for the banks, their greed led to their downfall and now the government wants to protect their greed.
Let's face it, if the banks failed who would get hurt? Only the big guys! 83% of Americans (the average American) do not have over $100,000 in any one account. Therefore they would not lose one dime. The government would give them their money back, only the big guys would lose, the same big guys who, through their greed, caused this mess. Mr. Obama should have fought congress to keep Americans working.
In other words, keeping the average American working instead of protecting big money is a battle worth fighting for and Mr. Obama did not take the challenge, he caved in to congress and their desire to protect big money. That makes me think that he lacks two of the essential points to be a good leader; concern for the people and willing to fight when it is necessary.
Only time will tell if Mr. Obama is a true leader or just another silver tongued politician. Good luck Mr. Obama.
While Rome Burns, the Leaders Fiddle
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
January 13, 2009
As with Nero fiddling while
I believe that everyone is well aware that we are in a depression. Yes, the
They could have stopped this problem long before it got started, but like the others in the banking and corporate world, they were enjoying the ride (hoping it would not end while they were around). Now we have a problem.
Very simply, the problem is that people are losing jobs because the economy is depressed. As people lose jobs, less is spent and more people lose their jobs and the spiral continues.
Solution -
1) Keep us working in our present jobs. Provide us with some security. If we feel secure, we will spend again. If we spend we start the economy on the road to recover.
2) Get the people who have been unemployed working. It will take 6 months to 2 years for the psychological scars to heal, but as soon as they do, these people will start spending, improving the economy
3) Keep the banks afloat so the people do not panic. Then as spending starts, get the banks to start loaning again.
It will take some GOOD administrators watching over everything, not like they have with TARP. If some good people are placed in charge, there is hope.
While people are being kept in their jobs and new jobs created, congress can argue on how to prevent this from happening again, but at this minute they need to serve the people who elected them.
We need a closer watch on the financial institution and the corporate world. it may sound like Big Brother, but those who have been in charge have proven they can not be trusted. Even with a big brother system, those who do the correct thing do not have to worry. The only ones who worry about someone looking over their shoulder are the one who are doing what is right. Then we should start to get back on track again. Hopefully the right track this time.
Resurrecting the US Economy
Or fighting the snowball effect
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
The
To add to this problem Mr. Obama's advisors did not have a clue to what was happening or they were extremely optimistic. To give you an example; before Mr. Obama was elected he was going to create 1 million jobs, at the middle of December 2.5 to 3 million jobs, just before New Year's 3.5 million jobs and today 4.1 million jobs.
It would appear that our new president's advisors do not understand the economics of a depression or the consequences of it, even though they are economists. A recession or depression is like a snowball rolling downhill. It will continue to get bigger until something stops it. This snowball has gathered a lot of momentum. It would have been easier to stop 2 or 3 months ago, but no one was looking at the snowball at that time. Now, it is racing down on
Scenario One - The Good
This scenario requires President Elect Obama to use all his charisma and leadership skills to push this through. It is similar to his current plan with only a few twists, but these twists are the parts that will stop the snowball.
With the remaining emergency funds, President Obama bails out the industries which employ the most Americans. Part the bailout for the industries carries the clause that no employees get laid-off. He also starts his reconstruction of the
Not laying off employees is a two edged sword. First it keeps the morale of the
Of the 3 million unemployed American, Mr. Obama's plan to reconstruct the infrastructure of the
I am not addressing the banks because they are falling due to people not having money to pay their mortgages. If the people are working again, they will be able to pay their bills and the banks will not be in dire straits. Therefore further bank bailouts would be unnecessary.
Yes, this is a very simplified outline. I have a written a 20 page analysis of the situation using this scenario, however no one would want to sit on the internet and read 20 pages.
Scenario Two - The Bad
Now we look at the flip side of the coin. If the lay-offs are not stopped, there will be over 6 million Americans unemployed by the end of March 2009. Remember the snowball, as companies lay-off workers there are less people to purchase goods and more companies will lay-off workers and it continues to grow.
This high unemployment will mean the continued bailout of the banking system and other entities. More people unemployed means more defaults on loans. More defaults on loans means more banks going under.
Next stop, the
This would destroy the confidence in the
If you would like to read the entire analysis, you may request either the GOOD SCENARIO or the BAD SCENARIO or both. The good scenario is approximately 20 pages and the bad scenario is approximately 27 pages.
Update for President-Elect Obama
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
January 9, 2009
With less than two weeks until Barak Obama becomes our next president he is running into problems already. His fellow Democrats are not in favor of his budget cuts and tax cuts even though he has acknowledged that the
We all know you have, what is supposed to be, some of the greatest minds in the country working on these problems. They have given you advise on how they think the country can be saved from this economic crisis. However, Mr. Obama, either they are not fully informing you of all pertinent data or it is just being ignored.
Let us look at some of the research data that the newspapers do not print. A report issued in 2007 (using data accumulated over 45 years) tells us that there is significant and lasting negative effects of displacement for workers displaced during their prime earnings years, ages 35-53 (which is the age of the majority of the workforce who are losing their jobs). What does that mean? Very simply, when a person losses his/her job there are long lasting negative effects to the person and the economy.
Our own government (Dept. of Agriculture) has done research on the negative effects and concurs with results found by [ Brenner & Starrin, 1988; Buss & Redburn, 1983; Dooley, Catalan & Willson 1994; Hamilton, Broman, Hoffman, & Renner, 1990; Hamilton, Hoffman, Broman & Rauma, 1993; Kessler, House & Turner, 1987; Iverson and Sabroe, 1988; Leana & Feldman, 1992; Liem & Liem, 1988; Ware, Jackson, and Banks, 1988 ] which tell us that individuals, displaced workers, experience heightened feelings of anxiety, depression, emotional distress, and hopelessness about the future, increases in somatic symptoms and physical illness, compromised immune system functioning, lowered self-esteem and self-confidence, and increased hostility and dissatisfaction with interpersonal relationships.
In other words, once a person loses his/her job they are depressed and they lose their confidence and feel hopeless about the future. Now I ask you Mr. Obama, if a person feels this way how likely are they to go out and buy things? After all it is spending money which will cause the economy to recover, true? If the people do not buy things, the companies will still go bankrupt. If the companies go bankrupt they default on their loans which cause the banks to go bankrupts; meaning more bailouts, etc.
Looking at this information what would be the best plan of attack to save the economy? Just give banks and companies bailout money? They did not operate their banks and companies correctly before, what makes you think they will do any better after you give them money? Let us look at the truth, they are wasting the money or using it for themselves. Will the bailout save our economy? How does that help the average worker?
1.6 Billion dollars has been used for a handful of bank executives (FRANK BASS and RITA BEAMISH, Associated Press Writers Dec 21, 2008). That 1.6 billion would have kept 40,000 Americans working for the next 12 months. How many have lost their jobs so that these few can get their bonuses? Those 40,000 American would still be employed, still spending and that is what will bring the country out of this depression.
The only solution Mr. Obama is to keep people working in their present jobs. I have said it before and I will say it again, keep the people working in the present jobs! You will overcome the emotional hardship and the financial hardship experienced by displaced workers (people who have lost their jobs). You will keep their spirits up and the spending habits will return. If you continue with just your stimulus plan and putting people back to work, instead of protect current jobs, you will face a depressed
It is your choice Mr. Obama. What will you do?
References:
Baumol, William J., Alan S. Blinder, and Edward N. Wolff. 2003. Downsizing in
Bellah, Robert, Richard Madsen, William M. Sullivan, Ann Swidler, and Steven M. Tipton. 1985. Habits of the Heart: Individualism and Commitment in American Life
Baumol, William J., Alan S. Blinder, and Edward N. Wolff. 2003. Downsizing in
Bellah, Robert, Richard Madsen, William M. Sullivan, Ann Swidler, and Steven M. Tipton. 1985. Habits of the Heart: Individualism and Commitment in American Life
Burgard, Sarah A. Jennie E. Brand, and James House. 2007. "Toward a Better Estimation of the Effect of Job Loss on Health." Journal of Health and Social Behavior.
Chan, Sewin, and Ann Huff Stevens. 2001. "Job Loss and Employment Patterns of Older Workers." Journal of Labor Economics 19:484-521.
Dooley, David, Jonathon Fielding, and Lennart Levi. 1996. "Health and Unemployment." Annual Review of Public Health 17: 449-465.
Fallick, Bruce. 1996. "A Review of the Recent Empirical Literature on DisplacedWorkers." Industrial and Labor Relations Review 50:5-16.
Farber, Henry S. 2005. "What do we know about Job Loss in the
Hauser, Robert and John Robert Warren. 1997. "Socioeconomic Indexes for Occupations: A Review, Update and Critique." Sociological Methodology 27:177-298.
Hammermesh, Daniel S. 1989. "What Do We Know About Worker Displacement in the
Kessler, Ronald C., J. Blake Turner, and James S. House. 1989. "Unemployment, Reemployment, and Emotional Functioning in a Community Sample." American Sociological Review 54:648-657.
Kletzer, Lori. 1991. "Earnings after Job Displacement: Job Tenure, Industry and Occupation." in Job Displacement: Consequences and Implications for Policy, edited by J. T. Addison.
Kletzer, Lori. 1998. "Job Displacement." Journal of Economic Perspectives 12:115-136.
Levy, Frank. 1995. "Incomes and Income Inequality." in State of the Union:
Podgursky, Michael and Paul Swaim. 1987. "Job Displacement and Earnings Loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey." Industrial and Labor relations Review 41:17-29.
Rain, Jeffrey,
Ruhm, Christopher J. 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacement?" The American Economic Review 81:319-324.
Seitchik, Adam. 1991. "Who Are Displaced Workers?" in Job Displacement: Consequences and Implications for Policy, edited by J. T. Addison.
Stevens, Ann Huff. 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses." Journal of Labor Economics 15:165-188.
Warr, Peter and Paul Jackson. 1985. "Factors Influencing the Psychological Impact of Prolonged Unemployment and Reemployment." Psychological Medicine 15: 795-807.
Wetzel, James R. 1995. "Labor Force, Unemployment and Earnings." in State of the Union:
Dear President Elect, What do Economists Know?
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
January 3, 2009
Today President Elect Obama said, "Economists from across the political spectrum agree that if we don't act swiftly and boldly, we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to double-digit unemployment and the American dream slipping further and further out of reach," (AP News on Yahoo. Com http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090103/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama ) This was in reference to creating new jobs.
Creating jobs will help, but the psychological effect of losing one's job demoralizes. Have you ever lost your job? It hurts. It takes months, years to fully recover from losing one's job.
I have worked for Rescue missions and other organizations which help the needy and homeless. I have seen men, women and families hit hard times. It demoralizes them completely. Even after they got work it would take months, even years before they started to get back to normalcy.
Yes Mr. Obama, you may create jobs and the person may be working again, but they are still demoralized and will not return to their old habits until they have fully recuperated from the stigma. That means they will not return to their old spending habits for quite some time, which also means a long recovery from this recession.
I have watched these people. I have worked with them. They did not want to spend money for fear of what might happen. They bought only what was absolutely necessary. They feared going back to the streets again. Their self esteem was destroyed and it took time before they felt confident that they could succeed again.
Dear Mr. President Elect, a great leader worries about the people, not only that they are working and that they have food and money, but the great leader worries about their morale also. Their moral is the highest concern.
Economists know about numbers, not people and feelings, that is why economists are not leaders. President elect Obama, you know that it is the people who will make or break this recession. Mr. President, you must focus on keeping the people working at their present jobs. Keep them from falling into a demoralized state which will hurt the recovery of the country.
I am not an economist, but I know people. I have worked with and helped people for over 30 years. Mr. President Elect, you need some people on your team who know the common man and how he/she thinks and feels. If you want our country to recover soon, keep the people working in their current jobs and create jobs for those who are out of work. You will kill two birds with one stone.
You will keep the income taxes coming in from those who are still employed. You will keep their morale up and their spending up, which will help to create new jobs. You will put the unemployed to work giving them a little hope. Between the enthusiasm and the spirit of those who are still working and the chance at a new position by those who are unemployed, the country will take on a new hope. With your charisma leading them, they will pull together to make a new
However, if you let the people become unemployed, they will lose hope. Even your charisma will not excite them. The road to recovery will be long and hard.
Best regards and best of luck
Dr. Edwin Weaver
Where Do We Go From Here
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
December 30, 2009
For more than 18 months I have been warning people that we were in danger. Our faulty leadership was setting us up for a big fall. However, while the stock market was rising and everyone was laughing all the way to the bank, no one wanted to believe the truth. The same thing happened just before the great depression. What will happen this time?
In the summer of 1929 Forbes was calling it the "golden age of American industry". Not too long ago the Wall Street Journey was calling this the most prosperous time in history, China and India expanding at record breaking rates, the whole world moving into a new era; a close parallel. Does that mean we are heading into another GREAT DEPRESSION? It all depends on one important factor.
The economists say that another great depression is impossible. They say we will suffer a deep recession, but not a depression; the economic are not right for it to happen again. However, these economists lack one important aspect, the same aspect which drove the 1930s depression so deep; economists know number, not people.
People decide how deep the depression will go, more importantly the attitude of the people. in the 1930s people were depressed, they lack hope, they lacked vision, they lacked purpose. That is why the depression lasted so long, even though the government was adding money to the economy and giving jobs; the same plan that Obama has.
It is not prosperity or the lack of it which drives people; it is hope, vision and enthusiasm. This comes from leadership. Leadership is the important factor which will determine how deep this depression goes.
Obama is not super leader. He can not mobilize everyone in every sector. The companies need great leadership if they are to survive and the people are to have hope. Unique Leader Professional Leadership Development has worked with people around the world, often in the poorest countries in the world. We have seen the effects of great leadership on the people, even when the government was devoid of leadership, even when the government was corrupt and rotten. Great Leadership motivates, great leadership gives hope, great leadership provides a vision of what is to come, and great leadership destroys despair.
It is time for companies to throw out the bad and develop leadership which is true leadership, not over paid, number crunching, money hungry businessmen. We need true leaders if we are to avoid the worst depression the world has ever seen.
The article below was one that was published four years ago. I had many comments at the time, however the warning involved in the article was never heeded. I have choosen to re-publish it in hopes that people will hear the warning and make a change...
What the Business World needs now are True Leaders
By Dr. Edwin C. Weaver
Remember that song in the late sixties, "What the world needs now, is love, sweet love"? The song is still true, but there is another crisis on the rise. We have bigger and bigger companies, but less leadership.
This is amazing considering the fact that Leadership training is the current buzz word. Every company talks about leadership training, there are hundreds of training companies offering these courses, yet for all this we lack leaders, or at least good leaders.
Where are the people like Henry Ford, the Lee Iacocca and the other great business leaders? We see millions being made, but that is not a sign of leadership. That is a sign of greed.
Henry Ford, Lee Iacocca and the other greats not only thought about making money, they also thought about people. People were important. That is a sign of all great leaders.
Go back 3000 years to Cyrus the Great, leader of Medes and Persians. He said he would not rule any group who did not want to be ruled by him. He knew the value of people. He made laws to improve the lives of his people.
Suleiman the Great, a leader in the
Henry Ford paid people what they were worth. He placed small factories in rural
The same can be said for Lee Iacocca. He was connected to the people. He knew what the people wanted. He knew how to be apart of the people, yet lead them. After he became the head of Chrysler, he lowered his salary to one dollar per year until he could turn Chrysler around. This made him popular with the average worker and everyone. He knew people were important.
In 2003 Business Week did a poll, nearly 80% of those surveyed in the Business Week/Harris poll said that the CEOs of large companies put their own interests ahead of workers and shareholders. The people controlling the large companies and corporations do not care about people. They are not leaders.
The world is facing a leadership crisis. People are no longer important, only making money and growing bigger. The heads of companies change every couple of years, or less, which leads to the people feeling a lack of stability in their work life.
In big business, people have become less than a number, which was a big complaint during the sixties and seventies, they are now completely disposable. Pampers has a better chance of survival than the average worker.
Without true leaders at the helm of these giant companies, the people of the world will suffer. There will be no hope of job security. There will be no hope of a future. Yes, people lost their jobs under Henry Ford and Lee Iacocca, but there was hope, there was some semblance of stability.
It is a time to become serious about producing true leaders in business. Otherwise, there will be no hope left, no stability. What kind of world will we have when hope is dead?
During the past 25 years, Dr. Weaver has worked with people in more than 20 countries. He has helped people open their own companies, turn around troubled companies and prepare for the next generation of leaders.
For more articles on Succession Planning, Management and Leadership go to UNIQUE LEADERS www.uniqueleaders.org
Do You Have the Right Stuff
By Dr. Edwin C. Weaver
December 2008
Many of your will remember that over 14 months ago I was warning people about the impending collapse which has transpired on us. I warned that companies needed true management and true leaders in place. That is still true.
Though the times are rough they will get worse. Your company's survival depends on getting true managers and even more important true leaders in place as rapidly as possible.
True leadership can weather the storm that is about to hit the corporate world. Only a true leader will be able to keep the people going and producing.
During times of stress and depression the spirit of even the employed worker will become disheartened and demoralized. That is where the vision, charisma and enthusiasm of a true leader will have its best effect.
Don't look at the CV, look at the person. Education may be a downfall at this point. You need a leader and that is not always taught in the institutes of higher learning. As the latest report from Wharton School of Business says, people do not trust the corporate giants. You need a change.
Now I am not an Obamanite, but we need a change. We need to start at the down and work down. We need a true leader at the head of the company and an allow him/her to rally his/her supporters and eliminate the other.
Sounds cruel? Perhaps, but in the near future it will be survival of the fittest. Where does you company stand??
I have been training people for close to 30 years; through 2 recessions and my most profitable times were the recessions. If you can inspire the people to follow you, you can accomplish miracles. And that is exactly what many companies need right now, a miracle.
During the 'good time' people are happy and do not need inspiration. Their only concern is keeping up with the Jones. Now, for most people, there is a new experience, a recession and not just a recession, but a deep hard recession. Most employees have never had to weather a true recession. Their parents saw the late 70's and early 80's but most of our employees were just children, they have no experience in this matter.
That makes the need of a true leader even more important. Remember, don't look at the CV and do not look at the age, look at the person. Even a young person, who has not experienced a recession, can lead people out of it. Look at the person.
Once you have found the right person, you may need to dig out some of your retired leadership to mentor and help this person take charge. They should not try to take over or oppose, only guide this person. If you do not have any good retirees who can help out, you will need to find a good leadership development group. Not your run of the mill canned seminars and workshops; you need true hands on development.
So why are you still reading this article? Get going! Time is ticking away and everyday a new calamity arises.
If you need help, you can contact Dr. Weaver at www.uniqueleaders.org
Leadership in Times of Trouble
By Dr. Edwin Weaver
Unique Leaders
March 3, 2008
As the
All throughout recorded history, the country or company who had good leadership, in place, prior to a recession was able to weather the storm and come out stronger and better than before. These times of trouble or recessions weed out the weaker companies and the weaker leadership.
This is not to say that just because a company survives the recession that they have good leadership. A company may survive because they have enough capital in reserve to weather the storm. The difference is the condition of the company after the recession.
The company who survives the recession only on capital comes out of the recession hungry. They need to replenish their capital. They did not have good leadership prior to the recession, so they were not poised to survive and take advantage of the recession. Therefore, they exit the recession alive but hungry. Their capital is depleted and they fall on their competitors like a ravaging animal.
On the other hand, the company who had good leadership prior to the recession saw the writing on the wall and they were prepared for the recession. They had plans A B and C ready. During the recession they were able to continue making profits, without depleting their capital.
Because of their superior position, while the recession was still in progress, they were able to offer hope to companies who were floundering in the troubled times. Even in the recession, they were able to buyout weaker companies and make them profitable again. Though money was tight, they were able to re-train the management team of these companies and install new leadership, which model the parent leadership.
At the end of the recession, they exit the tough times stronger than when the recession began. They now control more than before and have more profits entering the company than before. They have expanded their territory in an honorable way.
Which of these models will your company copy? Will you survive on capital? Will you flounder and fail? Will you survive and even though in a recession, prosper?
Leadership trained by Unique Leaders survives and leader their companies to prosperous ground. To find out more about leadership in times of recession, contact Unique Leaders - www.uniqueleaders.org
Unique Leaders Professional Development Consultants can help you with leadership development, management training, and succession planning. www.uniqueleaders_005.htm
